Football Guide: To master the selection of a sure bet, one must approach from 7 aspects.
Hello, I am an expert in data analysis, known for creating numerous winning streaks and topping lists multiple times. I have unique insights in selecting sure bets. To choose a match with a high probability of winning, I've summarized some personal experiences from real-life cases, aiming to provide useful tips for others. By considering the following seven aspects and conducting thorough, detailed analysis, you could be the next winning streak expert!
1.Past Records: This is the most direct reflection of the historical encounters between two teams. If one team overwhelmingly dominates another in past records, caution is needed as the popular choice might not prevail. Assessing past records alongside recent performances helps form an initial opinion about the match.
2.Recent Performance: This indicates the current state of the teams, a critical element in analyzing a team's fundamentals. Teams often maintain their performance trends; a team with consecutive losses isn't expected to suddenly win, and vice versa for a winning streak.
3.Asian Handicap: Invented by the late casino mogul Stanley Ho, this handicap minimizes the difference in strengths between two teams. Generally, a dropping handicap indicates a lack of confidence in the favored team, while a rising handicap suggests confidence. Analyzing these changes alongside team fundamentals can reveal the outcome of a match. This method, combined with fundamental analysis, is the most reliable approach.
4.European Index: Originated earlier, the European Index is known for its sophistication. Even minor decimal changes can significantly affect the outcome. Mainstream British bookmakers like William Hill, Ladbrokes, and BET365 are key references for analyzing this index. Conservative institutions like Interwetten of Cyprus, low-return ones like Macau and the Hong Kong Jockey Club, and national-specific indexes from Italy's SNAI, the Netherlands' TOTO, and Germany's Oddset are also valuable. Like Asian Handicaps, these require combining with fundamental analysis to discern the reasons behind odds movements.
5.Kelly Criterion: This reflects the market payout risk of specific odds, the difference between dynamic markets and predetermined payout rates. Understanding its trends, if one of the three outcomes (win, draw, lose) has a Kelly Criterion value above 1, it's unlikely to occur. The option with the lowest value is more likely to happen. The Kelly Criterion is a supplementary tool and should be used in conjunction with Asian or European indexes and fundamental analysis.
6.Over/Under Betting: Many enjoy over/under betting, which can assist in predicting match outcomes. A trend towards a higher score indicates an expectation of more goals, favoring teams with strong offense, and vice versa. This can be especially effective in predicting the outcomes of matches with difficult odds, like level or half handicaps.
7.Kelly Variance: This conveniently reflects the disparity in immediate odds offered by mainstream companies. A higher variance indicates inconsistency in the companies' attitudes towards a particular outcome.
In the UEFA Champions League match between Sevilla and Borussia Dortmund, the immediate Kelly variance for win, draw, and lose were 7, 7, and 10, respectively. These similar values suggest no clear bias towards any outcome, indirectly indicating a potential undefeated status for Dortmund. The final score was 2:3 in favor of Dortmund.
Understanding these aspects should give a clear idea of how to select sure bets. Each match is analyzed based on these points, ensuring a high success rate. If discrepancies are found in two or more points, the match is disregarded until the most stable bet is identified. Persistent analysis in this manner will undoubtedly yield results.