Best Live Football Betting Strategy

Our Top Live Soccer Betting Strategy

We’ve tried several different strategies over the many years that we’ve been betting on soccer in-play. Some of these have proved to be successful. Others have not quite worked out for one reason or another. And some have been nothing short of disastrous. We’ve learned a lot from all our experimenting, and there has been one strategy in particular that regularly works out really well for us.

Backing favorites that go behind to an early goal.

The basic idea behind this strategy is simple. We look for games where there’s a clear favorite to win, and then wait and see what happens in the early stages of the game. If the underdog happens to take a lead, we give serious consideration to betting on the favorite to overcome that setback and go on to win the game.

The main reason we like this strategy is that we’ve found that bookmakers have a tendency to overcompensate when adjusting the odds in these scenarios. A single goal deficit is not that difficult to overturn, and the top teams are often very good at coming from behind to win games. Despite this, it’s not at all uncommon for bookmakers to significantly lengthen the odds on a favorite if they fall behind. This can mean there’s a lot of value in then placing a wager on the favorite to win.

Can such a simple strategy really be effective?

Yes, if used correctly.

The simplest strategies are actually often the best ones. You don’t need to devise some super complicated system to beat the bookmakers. You just need something that helps you to identify where value generally lies in the betting markets, so you can full take advantage of that value when the time is right.

In our experience, a favorite going behind to an early goal is a scenario that regularly creates value. Finding these scenarios is the easy part, as they happen quite frequently. The next step is the more difficult one. Knowing when to bet, and when not to, is the real challenge. Because although this is a simple strategy, it’s not as simple as betting on the favorite EVERY TIME they go a goal behind. You need to be more selective than that, and use your judgement to decide when it’s appropriate.

We’ve offered some advice for this below.

When to use this strategy

There are no definitive rules about when to use this strategy. As we already stated, you have to use your own judgement. The main goal is to try to make an accurate assessment about how likely the favorite is to overturn the goal deficit. This means taking a number of factors into consideration. It obviously helps if you’re familiar with both the teams playing, as you can better gauge how the game is going to play out.

Once you’ve made your assessment, the next step is to study the odds and determine if there’s any genuine value in backing the favorite after they’ve fallen behind. There is one rule you should try to stick to here.

Only bet when the odds are higher than you think they should be.

This is the key to making this strategy work. You basically have to decide whether or not your bookmaker has adjusted the odds correctly. If you think the odds have moved more significantly than they should have, that’s when you look to get your money down.

This strategy typically works best when the favorite is playing at home, or at least that’s what we have found so far. Conceding a goal can often encourage the home fans to really get behind their team, and this in turn can inspire the players. It also helps when the favorite is in a good run of form, and not suffering from any lack of confidence.

When not to use this strategy

There are no definitive rules about when NOT to use this strategy either. There are some general guidelines that we recommend following though.

We’ve already touched on the first one, as it relates to the movement in the odds. Remember that the bookmakers won’t always lengthen the odds on a favorite by enough to make this strategy worthwhile. It’s very likely that they’ll still be confident in the relevant team winning even after conceding a goal. When this is the case, they may not make much of an adjustment at all. And when the odds don’t move much, this strategy isn’t particularly effective.

The other two main guidelines relate to specific circumstances where it’s probably best to avoid this strategy. This can be found below.

• If the favorite is in a run of bad form and/or the underdog is in good form.

• If the favorite appears to be playing very poorly and/or the underdog appears to be playing especially well.

This strategy is unlikely to be appropriate if the favorite is going through a patch of bad form. Although top teams are often made favorites even when their form isn’t particularly good, there’s a less likely chance of them recovering from going behind when they’re not performing well consistently. Equally, if the underdog is in good form then there’s a strong chance that they will hold on to their lead. They’re less likely to let the favorite back into their game if their confidence is high and they’re playing well.

It’s also important to recognize that there will be times when even the best teams underperform on the field. There will also be times when the weaker teams over perform. You need to watch out for these times, for obvious reasons. If the favorite is simply not playing very well, or the underdog is playing especially well, then this strategy is very risky.

A final point to mention is motivation. If the favorite doesn’t have much to play for, you have to question how likely they are to dig in and hit back after going a goal behind. By the same token, if there’s a lot riding on the game for the underdog, then they’re going to fight as hard as they can to hold on to their lead.

We’re very confident that you can effectively use this strategy just by following all of the above advice. We’ve had enough success with it to know that it works for sure. You just need to be selective about when you use it. One more important tip is to avoid making a bet when you have doubts as to whether it’s the right thing to do. It’s always better to miss out on an opportunity that might prove to be profitable than it is to waste money on an opportunity that proves to be costly.

More Strategy Tips for Live Soccer Betting

Regardless of whether you choose to use the above strategy or not, there are also some other strategic considerations to bear in mind when betting on soccer in-play. So we’ve put together a small collection of simple tips that we strongly recommend to anyone interested in learning more. We’ve listed them below, and then explained each one in a little more detail. Please note that none of these tips will instantly bring you success on their own. They can certainly improve your overall chances of winning though.

• Watch the games

• Use previous data

• Avoid guessing

• Consider hedging

• Factor in motivation

• Experiment

Watch the games

We mentioned earlier that one of the main advantages of live soccer betting is the fact that you have more information to work with. This is only really the case if you actually watch the games though. Certain information is available even if you don’t, but the real benefit is in watching the action and then making judgements based on what you see.

Watching a game on TV enables you to make more informed judgments about how it’s likely to play out.

Always remember that the people setting the live odds for a soccer game will be paying close attention to what’s happening on the field. If you’re not doing the same, then you’re instantly handing them the advantage. You need to try to notice things that they might not, and make better assessments about what’s likely to happen next. This is possible, but you HAVE to really focus your attention.

Use previous data

Remember the live soccer betting strategy that we outlined earlier? Why do you think we first tried implementing that? It wasn’t just a random idea, it was the result of extensive research and analysis. While studying previous data, we noticed quite a few occasions where favorites came back from going a goal behind. We then did a little more digging, and found that this was especially common after the favorite conceded early on. From there we developed a theory, and then put it to the test.

This is precisely what YOU should be doing too. Soccer data is widely available, and studying it can be so beneficial. Specifically, you want to look for any trends or patterns that might be worth exploring further. These can be general trends, or trends that apply to specific teams.

For example, you might discover that Manchester United typically score a lot of goals in the second half of their games when they’re already leading at half time. Or that West Bromwich Albion tend to lose quite heavily if they’re playing away from home and concede early in the game. Or that Bundesliga teams generally concede very few goals in Champion League games after taking the lead.

You can easily use this kind of information to your advantage. By analyzing it properly, it can help you find suitable betting opportunities when wagering in-play. If you have some idea of how a team is likely to perform in a particular situation, you’ll also have a good idea of where to put your money when that situation arises.

Avoid guessing

Okay, okay, this is probably obvious, but we’ve decided to mention it anyway. Too many bettors rely on “their best guess.” They feel like they HAVE to place lots of bets during a soccer game, to take full advantage of all the opportunities. So rather than actually give some thought to the wagers they place, they basically just pick things at random. This is a big mistake, and one we really don’t want you to make.

Live soccer betting can be costly if you bet for the wrong reasons.

This makes complete sense. If you’re just randomly deciding what to bet on, you’re not going to have any edge over the bookmakers at all. You might get lucky from time to time, or even quite frequently, but you’re almost guaranteed to lose money overall.

So remember that you don’t ever HAVE to bet. If you’re watching a soccer game with the intention of live betting, but no suitable opportunity arises, then it’s fine to not place any wagers at all. An important rule of sports betting in general is to only ever bet for the right reasons. This is especially relevant when live betting because of all the additional wagering options. It can be very tempting to bet on loads of different things during a game, but this is simply not the right approach.

Consider hedging

Live betting on soccer can be a great way to hedge existing wagers. If you’re not familiar with the term hedging in the context of betting, this is something you should look to learn about. We have an article dedicated to the subject of hedging, and we strongly recommend reading it.

We won’t go in to too much detail here, because everything you need to know is covered in the above article, but the basic idea of hedging is that it can be used to manage your exposure to risk. Let’s use a couple of quick examples to illustrate how this can work when live betting.

First, imagine that you’ve bet on a team to win a soccer game. You then decide to watch that game, and after 20 minutes you realize that the team you’ve picked really aren’t playing well. At that point, it might be sensible to hedge by placing another wager on the opposing team and/or the draw. This is obviously going to cost some additional stake money, but it can be the right thing to do if you’re initial opinion has changed significantly. There’s nothing wrong with taking a small loss in order to prevent yourself from making a much bigger one.

For the second example, imagine that you’ve bet on an underdog to win an upcoming game. For whatever reason, you’ve decided that they have a good chance of causing an upset. And, sure enough, they take a two goal lead in the first half. At this point, you could use hedging to make a guaranteed profit. The odds on the draw and the opposing team would have lengthened somewhat, so a small wager on each of those could ensure that you stand to come out ahead regardless of what the final outcome is. You’ll have sacrificed some potential profit, but it’s absolutely fine to play it safe sometimes.

Factor in motivation

We touched on motivation earlier, when discussing our top live soccer betting strategy. It’s relevant to live soccer betting in general too. The performance of any team is always likely to be affected by motivation to some degree, so it’s definitely something to bear in mind. Try to think about what’s riding on a game for each team, and what kind of impact that may have on what’s going to happen next.

For example, let’s say two teams are drawing after half an hour’s play. The home team is playing a little better, and passing the ball about nicely, so you consider backing them to go on to win. Then you realize that their opposition absolutely HAVE to win this game if they’re going to avoid relegation. On the other hand, the home team has very little riding on this game.

Would this change your opinion about what’s likely to happen? It certainly should. There’s obviously no guarantee that motivation alone will be enough for the away team to win the match, but it’s something that needs to be factored into the decision making process for sure.

Experiment

Our final tip here is straightforward to say the least, and it doesn’t really need much in the way of explanation. Basically, we’re just advising you to try out new systems and strategies. You should always be looking to formulate new ideas and come up with potential ways for making money. The best route to success for any form of sports betting is to develop your own strategies. And, with the number of options and opportunities available in live soccer betting, some degree of experimentation is absolutely vital.

So if you have a theory, don’t be afraid to put it into practice and see how things go. It’s the only way you’ll know for sure if it has any merit or not. If doesn’t work, move on to the next idea. And if it does work, fine-tune it until you maximize its potential. Then move on to the next idea anyway. You can NEVER have too many ideas.