Analysis of various odds adjustments (Part 3)
Thank you very much for reading this series of articles, here is the continuation of the previous article, introducing other odds adjustments.
Raise the home win and away win odds at the same time, but only lower the draw odds. This kind of adjustment is often encountered, and many people really hate it, if you believe it to buy a draw, there is always no draw, and if you don’t believe it, there will always be a draw suddenly. So what is the situation when the betting companies are really optimistic about a draw?
The first case is the handicap with the highest draw odds. For example, the initial odds of 2.5(Win)-3.5(Draw)-2.7(Loss), all companies adjusted to 2.6(Win)-3.3(Draw)-2.8(Loss) in the direction of draw in the later stage. Such adjustments are especially common in the Belgian First Division A, the result was really a lot of draws, bettors who usually pay attention to the Belgian First Division A should have the impression. Although this kind of situation is relatively rare in the five major leagues, adjustments to the direction must not be rushed to rule out a draw. This is the same as the method I introduced in the previous article. It is easy for bettors to think that a draw is the highest odds of the three items, it is so obvious that it is of course impossible to draw, it's still the "anti-converse thinking" of the betting company.
The second case is when the odds of a draw are lower than the odds of an underdog, both teams have always had a lot of draws recently. It's often occurs, Fulham and Burnley in the Premier League last season were the kings of the draw for a period of time. If these two teams meet the other team that also has too many draws, the betting companies often adjust their odds in the direction of a draw so obviously, and the result is indeed a draw.
In addition, the match between Argentina VS Chile (1:1) in the America's Cup group is also adjusted like this. The two teams always drawed with anyone, and the odds simply went to the tie, and the result was a tie. Traders from betting companies often tell us, for two teams like this kind of match that always love to draw results, they always like to desperately raise the draw odds to prevent draw betting many years ago, later, they observed that the bettors became smarter, no matter how high the odds of a draw are raised, bettors will never be less betting on a draw, in the end, they simply adjusted to the draw obviously, so that bettors felt that it was too obvious, and they didn’t dare to make a draw, many bettors see such handicap and odds adjustments, and they rule out the draw first, for betting companies, this not only greatly reduces the cost of payouts for a draw, but also prevents draw bets in the reverse direction.
There are also some leagues, such as the Brasileirao Serie A and the French Serie B, where the odds of a draw are generally low, and there are often adjustments to the direction of the draw, The odds for a draw in these leagues have been lowered to 2.8, and as a result, there are actually a lot of draws. This situation does not necessarily lead to a draw, but at least we can’t rule out it, the specific analysis still has to exclude the home win and the away win before betting on a draw.
The third case is that the dominant team is in an unstable state, often losing, and their opponent is often upset. For example, if the odds are adjusted from 1.8(Win)-3.5(Draw)-4.2(Loss) to 1.9(Win)-3.3(Draw)-4.4(Loss), the home team is stronger, but the home team has lost more and won less recently, but the away team is the opposite performance, then this kind of adjustment towards a draw is very likely to actually happen. Because bettors who bet on the home win will think that the state of home team is not good, it is normal for the home win odds to increase. At the same time, the away team odds have also increased, the return on investment of 1.9 in a draw is always more attractive than 1.8, so they will still bet on the home team win.
A large part of bettors don’t like to analyze the odds. When they see the status of both sides, they will consider the upset of guest wins, in such a comparison between the two sides, this 4.4 away win betting volume will not be much less than the 3.3 draw betting volume, so the draw betting will not be too concentrated. For betting companies, it can actually reduce the cost of payouts for a draw, and it can also ensure that betting on a draw will not be too concentrated, so why not do it. But this kind of unpopular result is indeed very rare, only occasionally in smaller leagues such as the Ireland Premier League. (To be continued)
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