Analysis of various odds adjustments (Part 4)

Let's continue with the previous article, under what circumstances does this kind of odds adjustment toward a draw rarely result in a draw?

If it is a high-profile game such as the Euro Cup, or the only two regular games in the same time period, or a strong-to-strong game with the highest attention in the five major leagues, or the UEFA Champions League. etc. For these high-profile matches, betting companies are really optimistic about the result of the draw, they rarely use such an obvious odds adjustment in the direction of the draw. Because in this kind of focus game, the largest part of the bet comes from bettors who have a little experience but have not studied the odds in depth. The situation is the same all over the world, which is shown by the statistics of the betting company.

This part of bettors are very easy to believe in the apparent adjustment direction of the odds. If the dominant team cannot reach the absolute popularity, these bettors will see the odds adjustment in the direction of the draw, and they will often really bet on the draw, These bettors are generally more interested in betting on the focus game, and the betting amount is relatively large. The odds for a draw are also at least 3.0, which is too risky for betting companies to pay. Therefore, if this kind of focus game makes this adjustment, unless the dominant team can guarantee absolute heat, it is rarely a draw. For example, in the first game of the Euro Cup, Italy VS Turkey (3:0), at that time it was an obvious adjustment to the draw. Italy was in good condition in the early stage, but the team has no superstars, too many media are constantly exaggerating the view that "the opening game of the Euro Cup is generally a draw or at most win by a small advantage." And most of the players in this Turkish team come from the five major leagues, they are strong and their performance before the Euro Cup is not bad.

Therefore, Italy cannot achieve an absolute advantage in this game, the adjustment of the companies in the direction of the draw can easily attract large draw bets, the 3.8 times return rate is attractive enough, but for betting companies, it is definitely not willing to pay easily. In the following match, Sweden VS Slovakia (1:0) also adjusted towards a draw, but both sides are in good shape, Slovakia has just beaten Poland in an upset, and this obvious adjustment to the draw indeed attracted a lot of draw betting.

So in summary, this kind of focus battle, if the dominant team can't reach the absolute heat, it is obvious that the adjustment to the direction of the tdraw will generally not result in a draw, but if the dominant team can reach absolute popularity, that's not necessarily the case. This is how the Italy knockout against Austria (0:0) is the case, Italy has won three games in a row without losing a goal in the group stage. The previous game has won 11 games in a row and has not lost a goal. This can be said to be a super terrifying record, however, Austria has been stumbling, and all the media are one-sided optimistic about Italy winning easily. In this game, Italy has completely achieved an absolute advantage, and a slight adjustment in the direction of the draw will not attract too many draw bets. In that game, even if the bettors saw that the odds were a bit abnormal, they really didn't dare to bet on Italy's loss or draw. They would rather give up this game because the Italian state is so hot. The main purpose of the operation of the betting company is to obtain the maximum profit and reduce the cost of compensation as much as possible. Under what circumstances, how to achieve this goal? please think carefully.  

For bettors who are interested in reading here, I think a large part of them will be very annoyed by the fact that it is really difficult to infer the draw of a game, they all want to ask "how to exclude a draw aor how to infer a draw"? Draws seem to happen often, but they are definitely the most difficult to rule out and the most difficult to determine. In the previous article, I mentioned that you need to choose several companies with conservative odds, there are slightly more companies with conservative odds for wins and losses, but very few companies with conservative odds for draws, you need to be very careful and patient to find them, and these companies also have different habits in different types of games, please be vigilant., a draw is a bottom line for betting companies, once bettors can easily break through this bottom line, betting will be very easy. The method to rule out a draw is the first is the situation described in our article, second, be patient to find the companies that are conservative in the draw odds, Third, find those companies that always like to be different and obviously lower the odds of a draw to falsely lure.

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