The 3 stages of handicap betting, the reasons for handicap and odds changes
Asian handicap can be divided into three stages from the perspective of betting
1. Initial stage
This stage refers to the handicap before the formal betting. The handicap at this stage is the handicap given by the dealer based on the basic conditions of the two parties before the player's funds enter. The handicap at this stage is more technical, that is, it can better reflect the difference in strength between the two opponents. At this time, the handicap and discount have not been affected by the investment funds, and are drawn up in advance by the dealer.
2. Middle stage
The so-called middle game means that the gaming company has begun to accept player bets, but there is still a period of time before the official start of the game at this stage, usually about 5-10 hours before the game. This stage is a wait-and-see stage for both dealers and players. At this time, although the handicap and water level have begun to change, the changes are usually not significant. And once the handicap and water level change frequently in the middle stage, it means that the dealer has made a basic judgment on the game. According to the author's experience, generally during the period of 15:00-18:00 on the afternoon of the game day, those handicap that have begun to change repeatedly, such as forming a stable handicap and water level in the mid-game stage, after many shocks in the on-the-spot stage, in the Once it returns to the handicap and water level formed in the middle of the market when closing the market, the handicap will be very close to the real attitude of the dealer. Here is a personal example. In the 2008 season, the author analyzed the handicap of 9 UEFA Champions League group matches. After analyzing the 9 games based on the handicap and water level at that time, the author bought 200 yuan of 9 games (9 strings of 1) according to the analysis conclusion. The next morning, I was pleasantly surprised to find that all of them were hit. 450 times return. Of course, the author does not deny that there is a lot of luck here, but it also verifies the reference value of the middle market handicap. After reviewing the game, it was found that the end games of these 9 games were all surprisingly consistent with the middle game market. The analysis method of mid-market will be introduced in more detail in the subsequent part of this book.
3. Betting From the peak to the closing stage (on-the-spot betting)
The on-the-spot stage is generally 2-3 hours before the start of the game. At this stage, the handicap often changes drastically. The change is caused by the passive change caused by the betting and the active change caused by the dealer's bait. How to distinguish the essence of the two changes is the key The focus of the stage is also the key to the success or failure of the player's investment. Here, the usual method of the banker is to use technical means such as rising water and falling water, rising plate and falling plate, or balancing the betting ratio, or betting against players.
Reasons for Changes in Markets and Odds
What are the reasons for the changes in handicap and odds? As mentioned earlier, bookmakers reduce business risks by changing the market and reducing odds. So what are the reasons for changes in handicap and odds? What does the handicap and odds change mean for players and bookmakers? Usually, the promoter of the changes in handicap and odds is the player's betting tendency, and the banker is the executor of this change. And sometimes the banker also takes the initiative to take measures to create changes in handicap and odds after knowing certain game information before the game, so as to lure players to bet in the direction that the banker is not optimistic about winning, so as to achieve the banker's profit purpose . Therefore, changes in handicap and odds will occur in the following situations.
Three situations that cause handicap and odds changes.
1.In the first situation, generally about 2 hours before a game is the peak period of betting in a game. If the odds are still high at this stage, on the premise that the banker believes that the game can really win, when they find that the amount of betting on the game is too large, the banker will suffer a lot of losses once the game wins. In order to avoid losses, the dealer will take the method of lowering the market and lowering the odds. This can achieve the effect of killing two birds with one stone. Firstly, after the market drop occurs, some mid-level and high-level smart players will shake their confidence in the top game, and instead invest their funds in the bottom game, which plays a role in balancing funds; Secondly, the betting with low odds after the down-market also reduces the price paid after winning the previous game. In the end, regardless of the outcome of the game, the dealer is the biggest winner.
2.In the second case, in some games with disparity in strength, the top team will naturally be valued by the public players and become the more sensitive side. At this time, what the dealer is most worried about is that the game will be overheated and win the game, which will bring huge compensation, so they will do everything possible to create obstacles for the game. The most direct and effective way is to increase the handicap to complete. The specific performance is to increase the handicap by one or two levels, increase the difficulty of winning the game, and sometimes even give outrageous super high odds. The effect that this can have is that most players will have the idea of retreating when they face difficulties, thinking that it will be difficult to win more balls in the upper game, and instead pour funds into the lower game. What's more, the dealer has already judged that the market is unbeatable, and in order to attract more players to buy the market, they will give a cheap shallow market at the initial stage. Raising the price of the market makes players feel that the dealer is creating obstacles to the market to prevent capital injection, and mistakenly generates greater confidence in the market, which leads to more funds being injected into the market, and finally forms a one-sided pattern. Many games where strong teams were upset also happened in this situation.
3.In the third case, when the odds have been in a stable state, different odds represent different attitudes of the dealer. For example, the betting odds have been in a high state, and there is no change until the scene, which means that the direction has not been impacted by too much money, that is to say, the public players are not optimistic about the betting. If the bookmaker takes a default attitude towards this kind of odds at this time, that is, does not make any adjustments to the odds and handicap, then the bookmaker may have two motives: First, the amount of betting in the game is not large, and there is no strong team that should be paid attention to. If you get more betting volume, there is a high possibility of playing if the market is not hot. Second, the betting funds in the up and down markets have been balanced, and the bookmakers are no longer worried about the possible compensation losses caused by either party's betting. In this case, the high odds are very risky, because the betting volume of the strong side is basically the same as the bottom line under the high discount, which means that dealers, players and some professional bettors are not optimistic about the top line. Therefore, many draws and losses in the upper hand are produced in this case. Another example is that the market has always been in the middle water state. From the perspective of players' psychology, middle water is often the most favored, because high water handicap is more risky, and low water handicap returns are too little. Medium water is more cost-effective, with moderate returns and low risk. smaller. This kind of handicap is often favored by the public players, and there is bound to be a lot of capital injection. If the dealer has always defaulted to this kind of handicap level, then the player should be careful. The market has become a hot spot for betting, but the dealer turns a deaf ear to it. It must be clear that the dealer will not ignore the possibility of bringing huge profits to the player. If it becomes a reality, the chances of winning the next game will be great, and the dealer is not worried about the players going to the next game. Seeing that the low water level has remained unchanged, the low water level has a great advantage in the game. If the game with high attention remains low, it shows that the dealer is deliberately showing favor in the game to attract players to bet. The opportunity will be great. And for some small events that don’t attract much attention, the market is low, and most of the time it is the dealer’s consideration to reduce the compensation, and the chance of the market is greater at this time. 2. The three stages of handicap changes. The first change in the handicap is usually after mastering the exact rosters, main lineups, and offensive and defensive formations of the two teams. The gaming company will make a strict technical analysis based on this information, and Make a judgment on the game in advance from the perspective of the team itself. The second change is to make adjustments based on the distribution of funds for betting on the two teams. The final change often best reflects the real intention of the banker. Some gaming companies will fight "psychological warfare" with players at this time. The weirdness of its trading methods is even worse than those of European companies.