Football Betting Systems-Kelly Criterion,Arbitrage
Kelly Criterion
Kelly Criterion can easily be described as one of the most popular staking methods football bettors are allowed to apply. One of the most important things you should remember about the Kelly Criterion is that it allows punters to decide on the amount they should wager. It is important to note that while you are making up your mind about your bets, you should take into account the perceived edge.
It is fair to say that prior to making a stake, gambling enthusiasts need to make up their mind about several vital questions. It is essential to decide on the team on which you would like to wager, to find a bookie which offers the best odds for the event you have picked, the reason why you consider that this bet is fair, and most importantly, the amount you are planning to stake.
Beyond all dispute, one of the hardest things remains to decide on the size of your stake. In such cases, many sports bettors recommend making use of the Kelly Criterion. This staking method helps gamblers decide on the amount they need to wager, considering the odds they are presented with. The formula soccer lovers should stick to looks like this: (B.P – Q) / B. Here, B stands for the value of the odds from which you need to subtract 1, P represents the probability to succeed, whereas Q indicates the probability to fall through which should be subtracted from 1.
Now, let’s take a look at an example with a toss of a coin. Let’s presume that you have decided to make a stake on tails as the odds of it are 2.00. In order to facilitate the calculation, we will presume that the result is biased and that the chances of tails to come out are 52%. Thus, following the formula we pointed out above, we will get that according to the Kelly Criterion, gambling enthusiasts are advised to bet 4%. It is important to note that when the value is positive, this indicates that the stake will bring you a profit. In the event that the value is negative, however, you should refrain from making a stake on that specific outcome.
Still, it is important to note that you should be cautious while you are making the calculations as otherwise, your stake might turn out to be a waste of time and money.
Arbitrage Betting
Arbitrage betting is undoubtedly one of the most appealing soccer betting systems due to the fact that it functions in an extremely simple manner, and at the same time promises to bring a nice profit. Some experts refer to arbitrage betting as a strategy, whereas others refer to it as a system. Either way, this manner of wagering on football might turn out to be a nice way to give your sports betting balance a boost, which undoubtedly makes it worth your attention. Perhaps, one of the most vital things you should not forget about the system is that you will be able to utilize it, provided that you are capable of finding the best opportunities. Still, football lovers should bear in mind that in most cases, bookies will not allow them to make use of arbitrage betting.
It is essential to remember that this betting system is based on finding and cashing in on the discrepancies in the prices which appear from time to time in the betting markets. Thus, once you have managed to spot these inconsistencies, you simply need to make two or more stakes on that single event, so that you could embrace all the possible outcomes. As long as you have managed to apply the system correctly, you can rest easy that you will enjoy wins, notwithstanding the outcome of the matchup.
Despite the fact that at this point, arbitrage betting might seem slightly intimidating, you should not get anxious about it as the example we will provide will undoubtedly help things fall into place. As long as you already boast some experience at wagering on soccer, perhaps, it has already hit you that the odds for some events might vary from one bookie to another. Regardless of the fact that in most cases, the discrepancies between the value are insignificant, it will undoubtedly add up down the road.
Let’s provide as an example a matchup between Manchester United and Arsenal, for which the value of the odds differs slightly. The only thing you need to do is to pick the bookies which offer the best odds. Thus, as long as we assume that one of the bookies has made Manchester United a favorite, whereas the other has made Arsenal the favorite, what you need to do is to make a stake on Manchester United with the first bookie, and a stake on Arsenal with the second sportsbook. Thus, in practice, you will cover both of the possible outcomes, meaning that either way, you will win.
Developing Your Own Football Betting System
Football lovers who are itching to improve their chances to enjoy good results might be keen on creating their own sports betting system. In fact, there are plenty of benefits which are associated with soccer betting systems, but one of the biggest assets remains that they will give structure to the manner in which you wager. Other than that, while you are trying to make your own betting system, you will also find yourself constrained to dig into statistics, which therefore means that you will become a more knowledgeable punter. Thus, the more you know about football, the better your system will become. Perhaps, one of the best things about utilizing a sports betting system is that you can easily eliminate your emotions, of course, as long as you are disciplined enough to adhere to it.
Once you know this, we can proceed with the creation of your football betting system. Gamblers should remember that they should gingerly make up their mind about the sport on which they are going to gamble. As long as soccer is your sport of choice, you should make sure that you possess a good deal of knowledge in this sport.
The next step is to start examining statistics and also to try to find factors which might play an important role. It is fair to say that when it comes to sports betting, statistics play a key role. That is the reason why soccer lovers are advised to make a list of some of the most essential things that should be taken into account while you are picking a winner. It is important to note that gamblers can also utilize percentages in order to indicate the significance of each of the factors they have managed to think of.
While being on the topic of statistics, punters are advised to make sure that their source is reliable, and that the numbers are accurate. Other than that, they should also make sure that they can invariably get access to the stats effortlessly.
The next thing you should try to do is to design your own formula or checklist. Once you have started to broaden your horizons, and you have picked the criteria which you think are the most essential ones, the next step is to plug them into a checklist. Thus, you will have the chance to find out the combinations of which factors you have selected will produce the best results.
Once you are done with this, you simply need to look for games which fit in the frameworks you have established and try to put your criteria into practice. It is important to note that this is only a preliminary checklist, so you should not get disheartened if it does not start working on the word go. Gamblers should be informed that there are two manners in which they can find out whether their checklist or formula is any good.
One of the approaches you might wish to give a go is to design a spreadsheet which will give you the chance to keep track of the stakes you have made. It is worth noting that you are not required to make these stakes at all, but instead, to decide which bets are worth making and which are a waste of time. Best of all, when you utilize a spreadsheet, you will be able to figure out whether the system you have made is working or not, without running the risk of losing any money.
The other option you have is to test your system by making some more humble stakes. This is a great option as it will allow soccer bettors to check whether the system functions in the preferred manner, and also whether they will be capable to follow it.
Beyond all dispute, one of the most important things you should not fail to do is to keep track of your results. It is fair to say that this is one of the most important steps due to the fact that it will allow you to find out which criteria stand up to and which one should be refined.
Once you have figured out where the problem is, you should simply try to tweak the system, thus further developing it. Even if your system does not work in the manner you wish from the word go, you should not worry as it is quite hard to get it right about every detail. Thus, if you have managed to find the factors which do not work, it would be a much better idea if you replace them with others, rather than to dump the whole system. In this relation, we should also mention that the sample size is essential as well. That is why you should make sure that you will not make any rushed conclusions.
Once you have managed to design a football betting system which best works for you, you simply need to reap its benefits and enjoy the wins you will sweep.