What is the home field advantage worth in the football matches?

In most sports, it is widely believed that home games have an advantage, but is that really the case? In football, is the home game an advantage?

The answer is yes.

How should we measure this advantage?

Most mathematical models used to predict goals will use different parameters depending on whether the team is playing at home or away. For example, the basic Poisson model uses different offensive and defensive ability values. Home team advantage (also known as home field advantage) is very obvious in the Premier League (EPL). In the 2016/17 Premier League season, there were 135 home wins and 92 away wins. The average score of the two was 1.60 to 1.20.

Reasons why goal difference should be considered.

Recently, a research project on home team advantage was published abroad. In the analysis of the home team's advantage in the Premier League, they not only consider the result of the game, but also take the goal difference into consideration to investigate whether there is evidence that the team performed better at home. In other words, if a team loses the game 1-0 at home, but loses 4-0 at the away game, this implies that the team has some kind of home-court advantage, even though in two games. It all lost.

What factors affect the home team advantage?

The application of the model will be more or less subjective, so people need to consider the possible factors leading to the home team advantage. The analysis pointed out that the performance of Swansea and Newcastle last season can be used as evidence that the home team advantage does exist. Swansea is located in Wales and Newcastle is in the northwest of England, so it can be said that travel distance is a factor that should be taken into consideration. In addition to these games, the team must travel farther distances when participating in European games such as the Champions League and the Europa League. Considering that the team must travel to and from these games within a short period of time, the home team's advantage may be more significant in the European away game and the away game after returning from the European game. Another factor that may affect the home team's advantage is the number of spectators. Whether fans have a "12th man" effect on the stadium is still open to question. For example, teams such as West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur are still performing sluggishly after changing to new stadiums that can accommodate more people. The study found that what benefits the home team more is the opposing player being sent off and the team getting more penalties.