How can you predict football results?

Predicting Football Results:Poisson Distribution

No matter whether you are a recreational football punter, or your aim is to sweep some serious cash, perhaps, you wish to make sure that the results you will enjoy will be surefire. As long as you have not heard of Poisson distribution before, you should remember that this is a method of estimating the probability of a specific set of events to come about within certain time frameworks. It is important to note that you will be able to estimate the probabilities as long as these events take place at a constant rate. When it comes to football betting, we should note that Poisson distribution will help you estimate the likelihood of every feasible scoreline, provided that you take into consideration the goal expectancy of each of the contending teams. Once you have managed to work out the ins and outs of this method of predicting soccer scores, you can be sure that your performance will improve dramatically.

As it was already stated, the Poisson distribution will help you estimate the chances of certain events to take place within a fixed period of time. This can be achieved as long as you learn how to convert averages into probabilities, which is not that a daunting task. Thus, if you are aware of how many times on average an event might come about, you will have the opportunity to figure out whether the other possible outcomes might diverge from this average value.

First, football lovers are required to estimate the average number of goals each of the teams might potentially score throughout the course of the matchup. In order to do so, gambling enthusiasts need to evaluate the strength of the defense and the attack of each of the teams. Still, it is important to note that soccer lovers need to pay special attention to the period of time they will cover while making their calculations. Thus, as long as the period is too short or too long, your conclusions will become more susceptible to outliers.

Let’s proceed with the calculation of the strength of the defense and the attack. In order to do so, avid football lovers need to calculate the average number of goals which were scored throughout the fixed period they have chosen. In order to get the average number of goals which were scored on home ground during the season, you simply need to divide the total number of the home goals which were scored throughout the season by the number of the home games which were held throughout the same period. Thus, when you wish to estimate the average goals which were scored away, you simply need to divide the total number of the away goals which were scored by the total number of away games which were held throughout the entire season.

Now, let’s assume that a total of 567 goals were scored by the home teams throughout the season and that a total of 380 matches were played. Thus, we will get that during the season, 1.492 goals we scored on average. When it comes to the away teams, however, if we assume that the goals which were scored throughout the season were 459, and once again, the total number of the matchups is 380, we will get that the teams have managed to score 1.208 goals on average.

Once we have calculated the average number of goals which were scored throughout the season, the next thing we need to do is to calculate the goals which were conceded during this fixed period of time. Now, let’s assume that during the season, a total of 459 goals were conceded by the home teams. Thus, we will get that the teams have conceded 1.208 goals on average. When it comes to the away teams, however, if we presume that the goals are 567, we will get that the teams have conceded 1.492 goals on average. Once we have this data readily available, we will have the chance to figure out the attack strength of both of the teams we have picked.

Let’s assume that we have decided to punt on a matchup between Juventus and Barcelona. In order to estimate the attack strength of the teams, football lovers need to follow two very simple steps. Still, they should make sure that their calculations are accurate as otherwise, they can get perplexed quite easy. The first thing soccer fans need to do is to divide the total number of goals the home team has managed to score on its ground by the total number of home games which it has played. Thus, if we return to Juventus, and we presume that the team has scored 35 goals, and the total number of home games is 19, we will get 1.842. Now, since everything is rough and ready, we can calculate the attack strength of Juventus. In order to do so, we need to divide the average number of goals the team has scored at home by the average home goals which were scored during the season. Thus, in our case, we need to divide 1.842 by 1.492, meaning that the attack strength of the team is 1.235.

The next thing we need to do is to estimate the defensive capacity of Juventus. In order to do so, we need to divide the average number of goals Juventus has conceded per home game by the total number of games it has played as a home team. Let’s assume that it has conceded a total of 15 goals, and the team has played as many as 19 matchups, meaning that eventually, we will get 0.789. So as to estimate the defensive strength of the team, we need to divide the figures we just got by the average number of home goals which were scored throughout the season or 1.208. Thus, when we divide 0.789 by 1.208, we will get that the defense strength of the team is 0.653.

Now, let’s take a look at Barcelona. Once again, in order to estimate the attack strength of the away team, we need to divide the total number of the away goals Barcelona has scored by the total number of games in which it has been an away team. Let’s assume that in our case, these values coincide, and they stand at 19. Thus, eventually, we will get 1. Now, we need to divide the value we have just got by the average number of away goals which were scored per game during the season. In other words, football devotees need to divide 1 by 1.208, meaning that the attack strength of the team is 0.828.

So as to calculate the defensive strength of the away team we need to divide the total number of goals the team has conceded while playing away by the total number of away games. When it comes to Barcelona, we need to divide 31 by 19, which means that the value stands at 1.632. The next step is to divide the values we just got by the average number of goals which were conceded throughout the season, or in other words, we need to divide 1.632 by 1.492, meaning that the defensive strength of Barcelona is 1.094.

Goals Projection

Once we have made all these calculations, we are ready to proceed with projecting the goals of each of the teams. Let’s start with Juventus. So as to figure out the number of goals the team might potentially score, we need to multiply its attack strength by the defense strength of the away team and by the average number of home goals, or in other words, we need to multiply 1.235 by 1.094 by 1.492. Thus, eventually, we will get that during the matchup against Barcelona, Juventus might score 2.016 goals.

Now, in order to estimate the number of goals which Barcelona might potentially score during the matchup against Juventus, we need to multiply the attack strength of the away team by the defensive strength of the home team, by the average number of goals which are scored away. In other words, we need to multiply 0.828 by 0.653 by 1.208, meaning that Barcelona might score 0.653 goals in this specific matchup.

Needless to say, there is no matchup which will end in this manner due to the fact that the values we have got represent the average. This is precisely where you need to resort to Poisson distribution so that you could turn the values you have got into probability. As long as you wish to achieve this, it is advised to make use of a calculator which will do all the job in your stead or to make the calculations on your own using the formula P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x!. Once they have checked the probability for the different possible score lines, soccer devotees are advised to tabulate the information they have managed to collect. Once you have managed to get your Poisson distribution results, you simply need to draw a comparison between them and the odds bookies offer.

Drawbacks of Poisson Distribution

Despite the fact that at first glance, it might seem to you that utilizing the Poisson distribution while gambling on soccer is the right path to success, punters should take account of the fact that it has its limitations.

A major problem might turn out to be the fact that this model focuses solely on past results, meaning that current changes such as the transfer of players, for example, will not be taken into account. Other than that, a setback might turn out to be the fact that this model is based only on the final result. It is important to note that the final result might not necessarily reflect the manner in which the matchup has progressed.

The other flaw this model has is that it does not take into consideration other events which might affect the course of the matchup such as injuries, the weather, and so on. Hence, such factors might have a lasting effect on the goal expectancy, meaning that your calculation might not turn out to be accurate. Any knowledgeable punter will tell you that the condition of the pitch is essential as well. Unfortunately, this factor is overlooked as well, which might affect your edge.

Conclusion

Once you have comprehended the ins and outs of one of the best manners to predict football results, perhaps, you have figured out that this model might turn out to be the stepping stone to a rewarding betting session. If utilized properly, the Poisson distribution might help you make predictions about the score lines of the matchups you wish to punt on, as well as to spot value bets, which can bring you good results as well.