The Champions League will feature a Milan derby tonight: AC Milan vs Inter Milan, Football experts analyze and predict
The Champions League will welcome another semi-final showdown tonight, as two traditional Italian giants face off in a Milan derby on the European stage. The match is not only exciting, but also full of stories and nostalgia.
AC Milan analysis
AC Milan lost their midfield core Kessie to Barcelona and Romagnoli to Lazio in the summer transfer window, while AC Milan spent 28.8 million pounds to sign midfielder Di Cotalar from Brugge.
After 34 rounds of matches this season, AC Milan have achieved 17 wins, 10 draws and 7 losses, with 61 points ranking fourth, four places behind last season. Since Napoli have already clinched the title in advance, AC Milan have no chance of winning the championship. They are two points behind Inter Milan and still have a chance to fight for a Champions League spot.
From the league results, AC Milan have a strong scoring ability at home, with 11 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in the first 17 home games, scoring 33 goals and conceding 18 goals. Their home fighting ability ranks third in the league. They beat Lazio at home in the last round and ended their two-game draw.
In the Champions League group stage, AC Milan advanced to the round of 16 as the second in the group. In the round of 16, they relied on Diaz’s only goal at home to eliminate Tottenham with a total score of 1-0 and advance to the quarter-finals. In the quarter-finals, they relied on a home win to eliminate Napoli with a total score of 2-1.
Inter Milan analysis
Inter Milan bought out Lazio forward Correa this season and also loaned Lukaku from Chelsea.
After 34 rounds of matches this season, Inter Milan have achieved 20 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses, with 63 points ranking third, temporarily in the Champions League qualification zone, but only two points ahead of AC Milan behind them, they still need to get more points in the league to secure their Champions League spot.
In the first 17 away games, Inter Milan have achieved 8 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses, scoring 32 goals and conceding 25 goals. Their away fighting ability ranks fourth in the league. Inter Milan are in a hot state recently, beating Roma in the last round to get three consecutive away wins, while also reaching four consecutive league wins. In the meantime, they also eliminated Juventus in the Italian Cup semi-finals and reached the final.
Inter Milan advanced to the round of 16 as the second in the group stage of the Champions League. In the round of 16, they relied on the only goal at home to eliminate Porto with a total score of 1-0 and advance to the quarter-finals. In the quarter-finals, they relied on an away win to eliminate Benfica with a total score of 5-3.
The two teams have met 10 times in recent times, with AC Milan winning 3, drawing 2 and losing 5. Even at home, they only achieved 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses. They are slightly psychologically disadvantaged.
The initial odds opened at 2.7 3.0 2.9, with little difference between win, draw and lose. After receiving bets, they adjusted to 3.2 3.1 2.4, clearly starting to lean towards away win. The rise and fall of home win and away win are both quite large, but the draw odds only have a slight increase. I’m afraid the bookmaker’s real opinion is a draw.
The two teams are not much different in strength, and they also have to fight for the fourth place in the league. This match’s nominal home and away field actually won’t bring too much advantage or disadvantage difference. Combined with the change of odds, this AC Milan vs Inter Milan derby is very likely to end in a draw.