Analysis method of European odds
The trading characteristics of gaming companies
"Know yourself, know your enemy, and win a hundred battles." Before we use the odds to predict the game, a very important thing to do is to understand the trading habits of representative bookmakers. At present, the main betting systems that operate EuroLoss include: exchanges and betting companies. The exchange system is represented by the Betfair Exchange we mentioned earlier, which operate in the form of over-the-counter or online trading. The main companies are: Betfair (Betfair. UK), WBX (London), BETDAQ (Ireland) ), Redbet (UK). Gaming companies are hundreds of large and small companies represented by Ladbrokes, William Hill, Yishengbo, Wade, BET365, Coral (UK), Macau Lottery, etc., which are what we call "hundreds of odds".
1. Exchange system
First of all, let’s start with the gaming exchange. The first feature of the exchange is that the return rate is relatively high, basically above 95%. Several large exchanges will have a return rate of about 97%. Due to the high return rate, you can avoid risks. The problem is very important. They are the weathervane of the entire gaming industry in terms of trend. In most leagues, the tendency of the exchanges is very obvious. To a certain extent, their trend basically represents the trend of the average odds. And more sensitive than average odds.
The most common phenomenon, for example, in a certain game, when Betfair had a large transaction in the early stage of the main winning item of the game, starting from the mainstream bookmakers Ladbrokes, William Hill, etc., they adjusted the odds one after another Until the start of the game, Betfair wins, draws and losses will affect the changes in the real-time index of the European compensation. And when the gaming company finds that although a certain transaction volume is large, but most of it is composed of retail funds, it will stabilize the odds level accordingly. Once an abnormal transaction is found, the gaming company will change the odds value before the game or even ten minutes before the scene. This situation often occurs in some hot events with huge trading volume.
2. Mainstream gaming companies
Look at the bookmakers. Gaming companies can be classified into three categories: mainstream companies, local companies, and non-mainstream companies. The mainstream companies are led by Ladbrokes and William Hill, which are deeply rooted and experienced. They offer odds earlier for domestic or higher-level events in the UK, but rarely intervene in some low-level events. William Hill was known for its authoritative and stable odds in the early days. Since the 2007-08 season, the company’s trading model has undergone great changes. Its trading methods have begun to erratic, and the odds data changes frequently. The styles are quite different. Of course, this is also related to the rapid development of the gaming industry in recent years and the surge of various gaming companies.
Compared with William Hill, Ladbrokes is quite the leader in the industry, and the range of odds changes should be the smallest among mainstream companies. The strength of Ladbrokes and Williams is mainly reflected in the British local and high-level competitions. Since their return rate is not high, basically between 88% and 92%, in order to attract buyers' funds, they often use hotter competitions After the odds of one item are lowered, the return rate is increased, and the result is often an item that increases the odds. For example, during the writing period of this book, the author was invited by a friend to watch the game together. The match was Atletico Madrid VS Osasuna in La Liga (microblogging topic). Before the game, many people, including the author, were not optimistic about Athletics. First of all, Atletico Madrid and Osasu do not have an advantage in terms of ranking and combat record. The boring match between the last round of the Champions League (microblogging topic) and Sporting Lisbon made everyone doubt about their attacking power. William Hill and Ladbrokes offered odds of 1.61, 3.50, 5.25, 1.61, 3.50, and 4.50 respectively in the early stages. For teams with the same ranking, this odds combination is quite optimistic for the home team. From the time of formal betting, the odds of the two companies began to change. The main victory jumped up and went up all the way, until it stabilized at the level of Ladbrokes' 1.72 and William's 1.80 until two hours after the scene. The customer wins went down all the way, and finally locked above the value of 4.50. Reminiscent of Osasuna's two major speculations in the 2009 season, combined with the trend of European losses, it seems to indicate that the old drama will repeat itself. However, the author found that under the odds attitude that is so synchronized with the fundamentals, the return rates of major companies have increased from the initial average of 88% to more than 92%, and William Hill has given a rare return rate of 94%. . If the 4.50 customer win project with a higher market expectation value is played, the return on betting on Osasuna will be extremely impressive. Obviously, the gaming company will not fail to see this. Therefore, the author made a judgment that the visiting team won’t win, and then combined with the Asian handicap, I found that the characteristics of the visiting team’s heat in the Asian handicap are very obvious. Finally, I made a suggestion to my friend to attack the home team. In the end, Atletico Madrid won 2-0 at home. .
Among the mainstream companies, Wade International is a very unique gaming company. The company is very sensitive to the performance of the games it specializes in, and often keeps the odds very low, and one of their most common tactics is to cover up a tie. For example, when Wade unequivocally supports away wins, reduces the away win value and increases the main win value, but the tie odds are more in line with Ladbrokes and William's attitude, it should be noted that such games often end in a draw. Starting from the 2008 season, Wade International began to strengthen its reference to William Hill and Ladbrokes. The most notable feature is that Wade's odds change with the adjustment of Ladbrokes and William, mainly in the two aspects of mutual participation between winning and losing value and Ladbrokes, and mutual participation between even odds and William. La Liga, Bundesliga and Asian competitions, which are more secure in the world, are very independent, and even have strong guidance for some small companies.
BET365 and Yishengbo, these two companies are in the second-tier echelon of mainstream companies, and their European betting attitude is often in opposition to the first-tier Ladbrokes and William Hill, etc., but this is not difficult to understand, because the two companies are currently The best thing is to take into account the Eurasian market. BET365's grasp of the game process and details is exquisite. In most cases, it shows the characteristics of being cautious and small. Once a radical move is made, there will often be surprising results. The sensitivity of BET365's European compensation is mainly reflected in the odds of winning and losing. When the final compensation value of a certain item in his winning or losing item is lower than the final compensation value of the first-line company, the result can always run out under the premise that it is not hot . As for the competition where each company collectively cools or heats one side, they are bold and aggressive, and their actions are even greater than those of other companies. Just like in the Atletico Madrid match, the average European odds for the main win was only around 1.80, but BET365 gave it 1.85. However, after their Asian handicap fell, the home team’s payout level was lowered, or even lowered. Based on the water level of Aocai and Sabah in Asia, this is also a typical feature of the company's consideration of the European and Asian markets.
Looking at Yishengbo again, the company has participated in many competitions, and there is no distinction between strengths and weaknesses in the grasp of the competitions. The author pays more attention to the Asian handicap of Yishengbo and BET365 than their European standard odds, and my early database was also established based on Yishengbo's Asian handicap index. The attitude of first-line big players has far less influence on Yishengbo’s standard odds than it has on BET365. The main reason is that Yishengbo’s development and market expansion of Asian handicap started early and was the most successful. All competitions have their participation. So they're a little lax when it comes to European odds. For events with high attention, Yishengbo's standard odds rarely make unconventional performances. Therefore, in addition to referring to the company's European and Asian differences, the author seldom compares his European odds with those of other European companies. rate for comparison. However, except for some remote events or small leagues, companies such as Ladbrokes and Wade generally do not open for these games. At this time, the authority of Yisheng Boou is fully demonstrated. Li Kee and other companies have strong references for Yishengbo's conversion process from Europe to Asia. When these Asian companies are lower than Yi Shengbo in a certain standard odds, the possibility of the result must be paid attention to. Conversely, if the Asian company's comprehensive (set compensation) payout is higher than Yishengbo, you should also pay attention to the possibility that the result will not come out.
3. European and American local companies
Among the local companies, the more representative ones are: Oddset (Germany), SNAI (Italy), Nordicbet (Costa Rica), STS (Poland), etc. Now, the author is more interested in Bet-at-home (Austria) and Betsafe (Costa Rica). The attitude of the company is also more concerned. It is usually more popular to say that local companies are best at grasping domestic competitions, so their attitude towards the domestic league is decisive. I can only partially agree with this point of view.
Take Italy's SNAI company as an example. For events outside of Italy, their odds are often 1-2 percentage points lower than those of mainstream companies such as William Hill (such as William Hill 2.10, SNAI is 2.00 or 1.90), while For the national league SNAI, it often increases by one percentage point. For example, for some overseas competitions, SNAI often lowers the odds of a promising one, while for domestic competitions, it tends to be as consistent as possible with the attitude of mainstream companies. In fact, this is quite normal. As a local company, its operating strategies in the original accumulation stage and the growth stage are naturally different. In domestic competitions, due to their geographical characteristics, they are bound to attract attention. It is understandable for the company to make a deceitful market performance. . However, what is certain is that in Italian events, if a certain odds of SNAI is higher than or equal to that of mainstream big players, the result is basically negligible. Furthermore, when the company lowers a certain odds by a large margin, and there is no obvious adjustment from the mainstream companies at this time, it is likely that SNAI is using its influence on domestic events to induce one side. For example, Lazio 0-2 Bari, Ladbrokes lost 1.83 to 1.83 at the end, William Hill lost 1.85 to 1.83 at the beginning, but SNAI dropped from 1.95 to 1.80, and its return rate was always fixed at a high level of 93%. On top of that, Barry finally won away.
Oddset company, the Germans are obviously more honest than the SNAI Italians. The company's concealment of the domestic league is slightly restrained, and it often makes larger adjustments to the one that is optimistic. And it should be noted that they also have a cunning side. The adjustments made by the company to the odds are often two-way. If they are optimistic about the visiting team, they will also lower the main winning odds while lowering the odds of the away win. . For example, in Hoffenheim's 0-1 Werder Bremen match, when Oddset reduced the odds of away wins to 2.25, the odds of main wins were also reduced to 2.40. At that time, the average odds of main wins in Europe were 2.70 and the odds of away wins were 2.40. After such adjustments, many players made a draw conclusion, and Bremen finally killed the home team in the 85th minute.
Among other local Chinese companies, Nordicbet registered in Costa Rica is better at grasping South American and Nordic events. When mainstream companies adjust certain odds, the company's attitude is also very referential. The former of the two small companies Bet-at-home (Austria) and Betsafe (Costa Rica) deserves more attention for the low odds in Austria, Eastern Europe, and the Netherlands, while the latter is more concerned about the early games in South America and the American Major League. The low compensation is more of reference value.
4. Asian gaming companies
Over the years, some Asian gaming companies have also made great progress in the development of European odds. In addition to adopting the attitude of referring to the dynamics of exchanges and mainstream companies, they also have unique odds in combination with their own operating characteristics. For example, Sabah (SB) in Indonesia, 12BET and Lee Kee in the Philippines, Macau Standard in China, etc. In addition to the Macau handicap, the first three companies are all engaged in the bocce business (that is, after the game starts, they continue to accept handicap or ball betting during the game process). Their running business is not limited by the closing time after the start of the game. Their betting is the whole process, and they are still accepting bets until the last minute before the end of the 90-minute game, even for some games that require overtime and penalty kicks You can also receive bets at the opening. Due to their full betting characteristics, the standard odds of these companies generally do not make major adjustments during the on-the-spot stage. Therefore, their on-the-spot standard odds are not greatly affected by the on-the-spot changes of European big players. The general law of these companies is: Although they sometimes reverse the compensation for a certain odds advocated by mainstream companies, once they have the same or cross (the odds value is exactly the same) as the mainstream companies in the payment attitude, the result of the You must pay attention to the possibility of running out, especially Sabah Company is the weathervane of these Asian bookmakers. If their winning odds are more consistent with those of William and other big players, and the odds of Lee Kee and 12BET are lowered, then the item As a result, if it weren't for the heat, the goal difference of the home team would be at least two. After a long-term follow-up of these companies, the author found that their greatest interest is between the time when the bet is placed and the game progresses to 60 minutes. During this period of time, the amount of rolling betting of these companies is quite large, so they are very cautious in the operation of rolling betting odds, and they will not easily take the risk of opening the market. Especially the standard market in the process of playing the game. For example, before the two teams have scored, if the standard market of these players is consistent with the on-the-spot attitude of the mainstream companies, the probability of the result is extremely high , and the trading information on the Betfair exchange at this time is also instructive for the changes in the rolling market of these companies. These two points are of more reference value for wave players who like to play ground and ball.
5. Macau Lottery and Hong Kong Jockey Club
Let's talk about the Macau lottery and the Hong Kong Jockey Club. Earlier, Macau’s European odds (standard odds) received less attention. The main reason was that the company’s investment in the European odds was relatively small, and its standard odds were relatively perfunctory, with little reference value. The author believes that the turning point to reverse this situation was during the 2008-2009 UEFA Champions League season. Previously, Aocai's bids were quite different from the conversion standards of companies such as Wade and Yishengbo. For example, with the main winning odds of 1.90 in the Australian handicap, it is normal for the Aocai Asian handicap to be flat/semi-low. However, when Yishengbo and other companies offer 1.90 odds, if the Asian handicap is also open to flat/half The half-low water belongs to the opening of the handicap. Starting from the second half of the 2009 UEFA Champions League (microblogging topic), Aocai's Asian handicap and European odds conversion standards have gradually converged. And its standard odds are also in line with the European odds model, and even showed super control ability in some hot events. Take the 2008-09 UEFA Champions League group stage Liverpool (microblogging data) vs. Chelsea (microblogging data) as an example, the average odds in Europe: 2.21 3.10 2.85, Macau Lottery 2.50 3.10 2.50, the main win of the Macau Lottery is 2.50, It is the one with the highest odds among all bookmakers, which is nearly 0.3 higher than the average odds, which shows that it firmly denies the determination of the home team to win. The 2.50 guest win given by Aocai is the lowest among all bookmakers, which is 0.25 lower than the average odds. In the end, Liverpool lost 1-3 to Chelsea. Through the results of the competition, it can be seen that the precision and courage of Aocai are convincing.
The Hong Kong Jockey Club and the Aocai often offer the same odds in the Eredivisie, Portuguese Super League and the sub-levels (Germany Second, League One, West Second, etc.) of the five major league countries. Because the Hong Kong Jockey Club is a membership club, its customer base is small and fixed. Therefore, its investment in the development of odds is not large, but it mainly refers to AOC. But this cannot ignore the Jockey Club's own strength in grasping the game information and trends. When one of their odds has a breakthrough against the Aocai, then this item is likely to be the final result.
The AOC and Hong Kong Jockey Club should pay special attention to the Asian events. Their ability to judge and control the Asian events is amazing. Due to the local advantages of Asia, any clues and information in Asia with a certain level of competition cannot escape their eyes. Especially for the Aocai, when their odds are out of line with the handicap, or there is a serious abnormality in the handicap, it should be noted that there are often huge mysteries in such games, and players must not use conventional thinking to judge such games. Not long ago, the Chinese men's football team beat South Korea in the Asian semi-finals as an example. Only Wade International and BET365, the mainstream companies in Europe, offered odds for this game, and Aocai also offered odds, that is, the odds for Korean wins and losses were: 1.50, 3.55, and 5.92. 1.61 is much lower than Wade's 1.80. Observing the odds attitude of Aocai, it seems that it is resolutely denying the possibility of China's invincibility. However, its Asian handicap only gave the initial hemisphere. As the Wade Asian handicap rose to half/one set on the spot, with the support of low loss confidence, South Korea was even more popular after the promotion, and Aocai also gave it on the spot. Out of the hemisphere 0.50 ultra-low water level. Judging from the feedback from forums and wave friends, South Korea has become an absolute favorite for betting. However, comparing the relationship between the handicap and the odds, it is not difficult to find that even if the payout level is controlled to the limit, it is a normal opening even if the bid of 1.50 is opened to half/one ultra-low. Obviously, the Korean handicap is too cheap. , Aocai dealers took advantage of the negative effects of the Chinese team to take advantage of the fire, looting the chips that bought South Korea and making a lot of money. According to the basic characteristics of the above-mentioned gaming companies, the characteristics of their trading can be summarized as follows:
(1) The characteristics of mainstream gaming companies.
a. Instructive and accurate in making claims.
b. Respond quickly to market and transaction conditions.
c. The initial compensation is relatively objective, and it is greatly affected by changes in the trading volume of itself and the exchange after receiving the bet.
d. Differences among mainstream companies will bring about completely different results.
e. Odds cross in the middle market and 2 hours before the spot, which often reflects the real intention.
f. If the odds of the hot item rise and fall, the return rate will rise and fall accordingly. It is necessary to pay attention to the hot side.
g. The attitudes of Ladbrokes, William, and Wade dominate the entire market.
(2) The characteristics of non-mainstream gaming companies.
a. The tendency is obvious.
Among the non-mainstream gaming companies, there are many companies with low return rates. When analyzing the odds, you should try to pay attention to which side these companies transfer the risk to, so that the tendency of the analysis is extremely obvious. Non-mainstream companies with higher return rates can be directly compared with mainstream companies.
b. Most of the changes are positive changes. The odds of small companies generally open relatively late, and they will not change the odds easily. Once the odds of a certain game change, you can see some mystery from it and draw positive information.
c. Slow response to odds changes, less tempting.
d. A clear grasp of upsets.
e. Abnormal game results focus on the initial odds and the duration of the odds.
f. If the payout and return rate is reduced, once the odds of a certain party are directly reduced, the result is easy to play.
(3) Characteristics of local gaming companies
a. The local competition is more concealed.
b. If the attitude towards local competitions is consistent with that of mainstream companies, pay attention to the possibility of their playing.
c. The normal odds are 1-2 percentage points lower than mainstream companies.
d. The lack of changes in mainstream companies and the deliberate changes of local companies are extremely deceptive.
e. If the return rate is abnormal, it is necessary to pay attention to the comparison between its odds and mainstream companies.
After understanding the operating characteristics of the gaming company, next, I will share with you how to use these operating methods of the gaming company to combine with the actual combat of football lottery.