Several Methods of Analyzing Matches Using 1X2 Odds
Soccer betting is a money game involving the banker, players, and teams. This involves the three major resources of banker information, player information, and team information. Odds are the most important bookmaker information, which is public and the easiest to obtain. The public betting mentality is player information. Although its real information is more specific and accurate than what we have, players can also make judgments and understand it through some channels, such as Betfair transaction volume, online betting tendency surveys, etc. And experienced players can also judge the public betting psychology (direction) through the range of odds increase and decrease and the time of odds change. Team strength comparison, status, injuries, weather, techniques and tactics, etc. constitute the team information, which exists in public and concealed, and we can also use the team's public information or banker information to detect it. After knowing these three resources, what we have to do is to use the odds as a guideline and use this information to predict the results of football matches. This analysis method is the odds analysis method.
Commonly used analysis methods include odds comparison method, odds cross method, odds average method, odds assumption method, odds analogy method, odds dispersion method, etc. Among these methods, the author thinks that the most practical ones are: odds comparison method, odds cross method, and odds average method. The author and some friends who are good at observing Betfair's trading index have also summed up an analysis method that combines Betfair's trading volume with real-time odds, which we call "comparison of odds and trading volume". Here, in order to make everyone have a clear understanding of these methods, we only introduce the four methods of odds comparison method, odds cross method, odds average method, and odds and trading volume comparison method.
(1) Odds comparison method
Odds comparison method, that is, comparing the odds of multiple gaming companies, is a common method for us to analyze 1X2 odds. As the saying goes, "Don't be afraid of ignorance, just be afraid of comparing goods." This is the truth. There are many comparison contents and methods, the most basic method is as follows.
Compare all bookmaker odds
All mentioned here include mainstream gaming companies, non-mainstream gaming companies, exchanges, and local companies. The main point of this method is: find out more representative companies or odds among various types of bookmakers, compare their attitudes towards the odds of a certain game, and find out the differences and consensus. Examples are as follows:
Example 1: Sevilla 1-2 Sparta Moscow (Champions League)
Time: March 17, 2010 European Champions Cup group stage
Ladbrokes opening odds: 1.50 3.50 6.00 Ladbrokes Pre-match odds: 1.53 3.75 6.00
William opening odds: 1.50 3.60 5.50 William Pre-match odds: 1.53 3.80 6.50
Betfair opening odds: 1.58 3.60 6.80 Betfair Pre-match odds: 1.61 4.10 6.80
WBX opening odds: 1.54 3.85 6.40 WBX Pre-match odds: 1.63 3.95 6.60
SNAI opening odds: 1.55 3.65 6.50 SNAI Pre-match odds: 1.55 3.65 6.50
Aocai opening odds: 1.53 3.50 5.80 Aocai Pre-match odds: 1.53 3.50 5.80
Analysis: In the stage of opening odds, the two mainstream bookmakers disagreed on customer wins. William Hill’s 5.50 is lower than Ladbrokes’ 6.00. It should be noted that the range of odds between bookmakers is higher or lower than 0.5. It's a big difference. The initial odds given by Betfair Exchange are not much different from those of the two mainstream companies in terms of the main win. Note that the odds of bookmakers should be 10%-20% lower than the exchange odds under normal conditions, while Betfair’s 1.58 is less different from mainstream companies’ 1.50. The rate given is not low. The opening odds given by companies such as SNAI, Aocai, and WBX also differ from those of Ladbrokes and William Hill. In the opening odds stage of the AOC, the customer wins were lowered. SNAI, which has always been more conservative in terms of odds, this time the main win opening odds gave 1.55, which is considered high for the company.
In the pre-match odds stage, mainstream companies have increased the main win and draw compensation. We noticed that William Hill’s guest win has increased significantly, but this move has not been responded by Ladbrokes. Judging from this on-the-spot disagreement, Ladbrokes Obviously he has scruples about customer wins. Judging from the on-the-spot performances of other companies, Betfair and Aocai did not make any adjustments to the away wins during the on-site stage. Aocai and SNAI did not make any changes to the odds pattern. Obviously, they both agreed to the increase in the odds of the home team. manner.
We know that mainstream companies are more influenced by exchanges, while small or local companies are greatly influenced by mainstream companies. Judging from the odds trend of this game, changes in the odds of the main win on the exchange side have a greater impact on mainstream companies than the odds on the away win, and the attitude of the exchange is not sensitive to the away win. The small company's main winning odds have not been affected by the mainstream company's 1.50 odds from the beginning, and they have always maintained their own views on the game. Sevilla has the home court advantage and is very popular. They were unbeaten in the last round of away games. This time, there is a lot of calls for returning to the home court to win and qualify. However, these themes have not received the actual support of the gaming companies. pattern. In the end, the Spanish powerhouse, who was determined to win, was beaten by the Russians at their doorstep.
Through this case, it can be found that when the mainstream company cannot exert influence on the small company, it may be understood that the small company has formed a disagreement with the mainstream company at the initial stage. If it is not understood at the stage of initial compensation, then this kind of disagreement is often the result that cannot be realized. When there are differences between mainstream companies on the odds increase and decrease, for example, the differences between Ladbrokes and William Hill always exist in the aspect of customer wins, and finally bring this difference to the on-the-spot stage, then this difference may be the final result.
Through the comparison, we can also find that the odds attitudes of large companies are completely consistent, which does not mean that this item is the final result; and when they have different attitudes on a certain item, the tendency of small companies is particularly important at this time.