Betfair data analysis: understand and analyze the flow of "hot money" in the game

Betfair data analysis: understand and analyze the flow of "hot money" in the game


1. What is Betfair transaction data?

Like stock trading, the gaming industry also has its own trading platform. One of the largest exchanges in the world is the Betfair Exchange located in London, England. The Betfair Exchange itself does not participate in the opening and accepting bets. Its main function is to open a betting platform similar to various betting events (including football and other sports, stock market index ups and downs, traditional casino games, etc.). The platform of the stock exchange, on which punters can buy and sell these betting events, and the exchange takes a commission from it.

For each betting transaction, the Betfair Exchange will publish these transaction data and trend charts of transaction changes. Just like stock transactions, the publicity of these data and charts provides bettors with various information given by the gaming company. The possibility of research and analysis on the probability of occurrence of the item. This is difficult for any traditional gaming company to do. These data include: the total amount of betting on the home team's win or loss, the betting ratio of each item and the specific betting amount, real-time transaction price (odds), real-time transaction volume (or amount), etc. These specific data are Betfair transaction data. As shown in the following table:

2. What is Betfair Index?

For example, the "Required" column in the first example above is the Betfair Trading Index. How is this index derived? What is its significance? Betfair Index is an index system that indicates the tendency of market transactions, which is launched after a large number of calculations, records, and statistical analysis of the transaction data of the Betfair standard market (trading odds or prices), and its data comes from the Betfair Exchange. In the actual transaction, the core model is:

Single index = (single transaction volume X single transaction price) / sum of volume and price products of wins, draws and losses

Through this model, the capital investment and lock-up status of buyers and sellers can be accurately calculated. If the single transaction volume and single transaction price in each transaction are calculated, and then the sum is calculated, the accuracy will be extremely impressive.

3. Why look at Betfair Index?

As the famous game analyst Paul said: "Football betting is not just about statistics and team news. One part of the betting portfolio is to know where the hot money of the game goes." You know, all betting in the traditional sense Companies will not provide bettors with information such as betting volume information and market transaction changes within the scope of their own business secrets. This is also normal, because the relationship between gaming companies and bettors is inherently antagonistic. The Betfair exchange is only an intermediary role, neither opening nor receiving bets, so even if these transaction data are disclosed, there will be no harm to its own interests.

As the world's largest gaming trading platform, Betfair Exchange has a weekly turnover of nearly 700 million Hong Kong dollars, which has an absolute monopoly on the market behavior of gaming transactions in the form of counters, and the data processing capabilities of Betfair Exchange can guarantee They complete more than 12,000 transactions in one minute, that is, 200 transactions per second. Therefore, the public index of the Betfair Exchange is sufficient to represent the market conditions of a certain game. It is the authority of Betfair Exchange on the market conditions that enables bettors to understand and analyze the source and destination of the so-called "hot money" in a certain game through the variable performance of Betfair transactions.