What is a fair odds line?

What is a fair odds line?

What is a fair odd? The future winning probabilities of both teams in a match, based on all the fundamental factors, are calculated by the actuarial team of an authoritative organization. 


The fair odd corresponds to this future winning probability. Therefore, the fair odd represents the professional attitude of the organization and is the core data for measuring the future winning probability of both teams. For example, when the probabilities of both teams are 50%, the corresponding fair odds are 2.0 VS 2.0 (1÷50%). If a player's winning probability reaches 50%, both sides can break even, making the odds fair. It should be noted that not all matches have fair odds of 2.0. For instance, when the home team has a probability of 66.66%, their fair odd is 1.5 (1÷1.5=66.66%), and the player can break even by betting at odds of 1.5. Therefore, you must analyze the predicted probabilities of the organization and understand the boundary of fair odds to know whether the odds are disadvantageous in terms of probability. Otherwise, even if you consistently bet on the best team with higher probabilities, you will not profit due to the bookmaker's margin.

What are disadvantageous odds with a bookmaker's margin? If an organization lowers the fair odd of 2.0 to 1.9, the player will be at a disadvantage due to the bookmaker's margin (commonly referred to as "taking a cut" or "vampirism"). To make up for this 10-point margin loss, the player needs to increase their winning probability by 2.63% (1÷1.9-50%). Therefore, odds lower than the fair odds are disadvantageous odds with a bookmaker's margin.

What are value odds with a reversed bookmaker's margin? This concept is the opposite of the bookmaker's margin. If the organization sets the odds higher than 2.0, for example, 2.1, the player can take advantage by reversing the bookmaker's margin. As long as the winning probability exceeds 47.61%, there is no need to reach the normal 50% winning rate to profit. Therefore, odds higher than the fair odds are value odds with a reversed bookmaker's margin. 99% of people believe that increasing the winning rate is the only way to profit, but the principle of reversed bookmaker's margin proves that as long as you capture value odds with a reversed margin, you can profit even with a lower-than-normal winning rate.

How to improve the winning and profit rate? In addition to increasing the winning rate and capturing value odds, exclusive profit techniques like capital allocation, order replenishment skills, and timing of purchase can each significantly improve the winning and profit rate. However, if the bookmaker's margin for a particular betting method is very high, no matter how skilled the bettor is or what techniques they use, they will not have a winning chance.