Start from seven aspects and learn to pick a sure bet

Start from seven aspects and learn to pick a sure bet

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How to choose a game with a high probability of winning, I have summed up some personal experience through practical operations, hoping to play a reference role for everyone to choose a game. I believe that if you think about the following seven aspects and analyze it comprehensively and meticulously, then you may be the next winning streak master!


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1. Head to Head History

The head to head history is the most intuitive manifestation of the historical battle between the two sides, when one side's record is comprehensively crushing the other side, it is necessary to be careful that the popular side cannot exert its full strength. The head to head history is to combine the recent history of the team to judge whether the initial Asian handicap index is reasonable, and then form a preliminary view of the game.


2. Recent History

The recent history is a display of the recent state of the two teams, and it is the most important part of analyzing the fundamentals of the team. The state of the team is continuous, you can't expect a team with a losing streak to suddenly win, and you can't bet on a team with a winning streak that suddenly lose.


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3. Asia Handicap Index

Changes in this index need to be analyzed in combination with the fundamentals of the team, You need to figure out the reasons for the increase and decrease of the Asia handicap, as long as you find a breakthrough, the result of a game can basically be judged. The fundamental combination asia handicap index is the most practical and reliable method to analyze a game, other than that, there is no other shortcut.


4. Euro Handicap Index

The Euro handicap index originated earlier and has the characteristics of refinement. It is said that the Euro handicap index are broad and profound and highly instructive to the results, even small changes in decimal places can lead to differences in results. Usually, William Hill, Ladbrokes and BET365, the three mainstream British betting company, have a very unique grasp of the results and are the main reference objects for analyzing the Euro Handicap Index, we should pay more attention. In addition, Interwetten in Cyprus is more conservative and is also worthy of reference. SNAI in Italy, TOTO in Netherland, Oddset in Germany, have their own unique views on their own leagues (Serie A, Eredivisie, Bundesliga) Sometimes we use them to compare with those British companies, and we can accurately get the tendencies of the betting company, which is very helpful for us to analyze the competition.


5. kelly's index

The value reflected by the Kelly's index is the payout risk of the odds, that is, the payout difference between the dynamic market and the pre-established payout rate. We don’t need to understand how the Kelly's index is calculated, we just need to observe its trend. If one of the three options of win, draw and loss corresponds to the Kelly's index value higher than 1, generally speaking, this option will be difficult to happen, but not impossible. Usually, whichever of the three items of win, draw and loss corresponds to the lowest value of the Kelly's index, the greater the probability of that item occurring. Of course, by definition, we know that the Kelly's index is only a tool to assist in judging the game. It can be used as a reference, but it cannot be used directly to judge. We mainly still need to combine the fundamentals and handicap index for analysis. In addition, the Kelly's index is often miraculous for judging the unpopularity of some games.


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6. Over Under Betting

Many people like to play with over under betting, in my opinion, over under betting has a role in assisting judgment on the result of the game. If the over under betting tends to over betting, it means that the betting company expects that the number of goals in the match will not be less, so it is beneficial to the team with better offense, the reverse is also the same,  the over under betting tends to under betting, it's good for the team with better defense. By judging the result of the game from the side of the number of goals, it has a good effect especially in the difficult match with the lowest draw odds.


7. Kelly Criterion Variance

Kelly Criterion Variance can easily and intuitively reflect the dispersion degree of real-time odds of various betting companies. The larger the Kelly Criterion Variance of an option, the more inconsistent the attitudes of various betting companies to the option.


After reading the above aspects, I believe you have a certain understanding of how to choose a sure bet, I also analyze each game from these points, so the win rate can be guaranteed. For me, if more than two of the seven aspects come to a different conclusion, I will give up betting on that macth until the safest one is selected. If you can continue to analyze in this way, you will definitely gain something!


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